The calm before the storm

Following yesterday's post announcing HRCFS associate Aaron Rosa's future-tracking activities in Beijing, the above shot of the eerily deserted National Stadium (a.k.a. "Bird's Nest") is part of his pre-Olympic slideshow... tune into his blog for more as the event unfolds.

Our man in Beijing

Latest dispatch from another one of our intrepid travellers--Aaron Rosa.

Dear All,

I am writing this [note] to encourage feedback on my summer course project at HRCFS. The Olympic Games start tomorrow, and I am established here in Beijing building a weblog focused on an analysis of Images of the Future that are present at these games. I have compiled supplementary information during the months leading up tot the games.

June comprises snapshot views at China's History.

July's work focuses on Current Trends involving the People's Republic of China.

August leading up to the games involves some impressions gathered here in the last 5 months, and some information concerning Futures Analysis and Research.

Tomorrow, the Opening Ceremonies will kick off the games, and I will be roving the Olympic sites, analyzing the Futures Images that are present at these games.

However, a one-way analysis and presentation would prove less fruitful than what I am hopeful this project will encompass. It is my hope that this project may inspire a short term discussion of the varying Futures at play during these games between Futures specialists from around the world. This kind of a resource could help others to better understand Futures Studies, as it pertains to real-time events, and their current lives.

The address to the blog is here:

http://beijingfuturesdreams.blogspot.com


Lastly, I am hopeful that all of you will have a chance to stop by the blog during the next few weeks to view pictures, read analysis, and leave your own.

Thank You,

Aaron Rosa

Where are they now?

The sun never sets on the HRCFS anticipatory democracy. An update on our mid-summer globetrotting.

Jim Dator is in Barcelona, Catalunya, Europe leading this year's session of the International Space University's Space and Society Program.

Debbie Halbert is in Ohio, preparing to join us soon.

Stuart Candy is in New Haven, Conn.

Seongwon Park is in Korea.

William Kramer is somewhere in the Sierra Mountains.

And I am happily nesting in the relative solitude of Nuuanu Valley.

Where are YOU today?

The Smell of Success

In futurist circles, a possibly apocryphal, but nonetheless irresistible, illustration of the hazards of prediction and linear extrapolation is the story of desperate city planners in fin-de-siecle London (or New York, or Paris in its various re-tellings). What was the source of their dilemma? Why, mountains of horse manure, of course.

Here is a quintessential re-telling, by Eric Morris at UCLA:

The situation seemed dire. In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure. One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the horse droppings would rise to Manhattan's third-story windows. A public health and sanitation crisis of almost unimaginable dimensions loomed.

And no possible solution could be devised. After all, the horse had been the dominant mode of transportation for thousands of years. Horses were absolutely essential for the functioning of the 19th century city - for personal transportation, freight haulage and even mechanical power. Without horses, cities would quite literally starve.

Maybe it is our evangelism of plural futures, or a penchant for scatophilia, but this story has been frequent fodder for discussion here at the HRCFS. Case in point, see Stuart's post: Parables and Horseshit.


As the end of oil draws near, we cling to the hope for a 21st Century version of the transformation from horse to car that will save us from infrastructure collapse. But maybe we are seeing signs of another, more familiar problem:

Sarah Friedson of Westport rode her sister's pony to school Friday morning as both a prank and to protest the high price of gas, the 17-year-old said.

She hung a sign on the horse that read "Ride on '08" and "Save Gas $."

When she arrived on school property, accompanied by her father, Ronald who was trailing behind in his car, school officials told her police was on the way. link

So, were we wrong by ridiculing and castigating those old projections from the gay '90s? Maybe those apocryphal futurists and planners were just off by a few decades, and the gas-powered car was but a temporary solution. Now, people, what are we going to do about all the (coming) horseshit?!

The Art of the Impossible

Last month we were delighted to host NYU media and politics scholar Stephen Duncombe for our 12th(!) Honolulu Futures Salon. Duncombe is one of the most important voices in progressive politics, and his presentation did not disappoint.

His talk, "The Art of the Impossible", can now be viewed here.

[apologies for the poor lighting and other technical imperfections, but the audio is loud and clear.]

Abstract:

Art of the Impossible: Creating Spaces to Imagine Alternative Futures

How can we imagine the future? Is it an exercise best left up to trained experts, or should it be a collective enterprise? In either case, how do we negotiate the problem of imagining a future through the mindset of the present. Author, activist and academic Stephen Duncombe makes the case that the best way to imagine our possible futures is through confrontation with the impossible, the absurd and the ridiculous. Drawing upon recent experiments in activist street art, Duncombe argues that is in engagement with the impossible that we can open up spaces for people to imagine scenarios of the future and free our imagination from the tyranny of the possible.

Details:

What: Futures Salon
Who: Steve Duncombe
When Friday, May 9, 6:30-8:00p
Where: Ward's Rafters

Halbert in Hawaii

We are extremely pleased to announce that Dr. Deborah Halbert will be joining the Faculty of the UH Department of Political Science. The position itself, contributing to futures studies and public policy, is a tremendous boost to our program and the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. Having a scholar of Debbie's caliber elevates us even further. Her work on the politics of intellectual property law is first rate [see: Halbert CV], and is an area of prime importance for our collective ability to imagine and express alternative futures, and to create preferred futures.

The process to bring in a new futures faculty, though slow and difficult at times, has paid off in a fine result. We look forward to welcoming Debbie back to Hawaii this Fall and for great things to come.

Labels: academia, faculty, halbert

Like a setting Sun

Star-Bulletin politics reporter Richard Borreca laments the lack of vision and action among Hawaii's elected and non-elected leaders in a Sunday editorial.
Borreca's arguments are built on those made by our own Jim Dator, and are in-line with the noises the HRCFS has been making for some time.

Says Borreca:

For isolated economies, the first sign that you have flamed out might be that the planes stop flying to your airport on a regular basis.

There is a tipping point to governing. At one point you can grab something before it goes down the tubes. But there is a moment when it is going to slip away no matter how hard you try to pull back.

As James Schlesinger, the first energy secretary, put it: "We have only two modes -- complacency and panic."

and

Three years ago Dator wrote that the Hawaii's actual state plan was "built on the assumption of an expanding global supply of oil."

"A shrinking global supply of oil might be harmful for Hawaii's economy, reducing tourist arrivals, deflating real estate values and resulting in significant economic contraction," Dator and Honolulu engineer Manfred Zapka warned.

...

Dator reports that "things have gotten worse while the state has basically played the fiddle."

When one of the nation's leading futurists is so decidedly gloomy about our own options, the state's leaders might want to start making decisions for real and not for show.

For real though.