Jamais' 12 + Jim's 7

Jamais Cascio has posted "Twelve Things Journalists Need To Know to be Good Futurist/Foresight Reporters."

I must disagree with one of his listed items--number 5 "The Future is usually the present, only moreso." This is what we call the "official" view of the future--continued growth. It is the model of the future for virtually every political and economic system on the planet. While it has defined the poltiical-economy of the industrial age, there is no reason to believe that the future will simply entail more of what we have now. Peak oil, pandemics, war, or global resource shortages could all lead to a drastically altered future that is ANYTHING BUT more of what we have now. Also, high-tech transformations, "the singularity" and other kinds of transformations could subvert a continued growth outcome.

Nonetheless, many of Cascio's items will be familiar to those who have read Jim Dator's work. See for example Dator's "Laws of the Futures:"

Dator's "Laws" of the Futures (and of Futures Studies)
by Jim Dator

Futures Studies is generally misunderstood from two perspectives. On the one hand, there are those who believe it is, or pretends to be, a predictive science which, if properly applied, strives to foretell with reasonable accuracy what the future will be.

There is no such futures studies worthy of your attention. Whatever might have been the case of most societies for millennia before ours, very little in society today beyond the most trivial can be precisely predicted. Also, whatever might have been thought to be the case in early modern times, we should all know by now that society is not some gigantic machine, the future states of which, if its inner workings are properly understood and its operations carefully calculated scientifically, can be precisely pre-determined.

On the other hand, it is not the case that it is hopeless to try to anticipate things to come, or that anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's. Even though the future cannot be predicted (and certainly no prediction of the future should be uncritically "believed"), there are theories and methods which futurists have developed, tested, and applied in recent years which have proven useful to individuals, institutions and communities as they attempt to anticipate and create viable futures for themselves and their communities. Understanding and applying the theories and methods of futures studies will enable people to anticipate the future more usefully, and to shape it appreciably more to their own preferences.

Over the thirty years that I have been teaching futures studies and doing futures research, I have come to see that there are several basic things to understand about the future, and hence about futures studies. I have, somewhat jokingly, framed them as "Dator's Laws of the Future." They are stated here in capsule form.

I. "The future" cannot be "studied" because "the future" does not exist.
Futures studies does not--or should not pretend to--study "the future." It studies ideas about the future--what I usually call "images of the future"--which each individual (and group) has (often holding several conflicting images at one time). Understanding these images is important because they serve as the basis for many individual and collective actions in the present. Individual and group images of the future are often highly volatile, changing according to changing events or perceptions. They often change over the life of individuals and institutions. Different groups often have very differing images of the future. Men's images may differ from women's. Western images may differ from nonwestern images, for example.

II. The future" cannot be "predicted," but "alternative futures" can, and should be "forecast."
Thus, one of the main tasks of futures studies is to identify and examine the major significantly alternative futures which exist at any given time and place. The futures should always be understood to be alternative, plural, open--the arena of possibility, struggle, and hope, and not of inevitability, helplessness, or despair.

III. There is no such thing as a "best case scenario" or a "worst case scenario."
There is a dark side--someone often loses (it might be you)--even under conditions which you might have considered to be "best". At the same time, there are ample opportunities for you, and/or others, to thrive and succeed under even the bleakest situation, especially if you have prepared for it thoughtfully.

IV. What is often popularly, or even professionally, considered to be "the most likely future" is, in all probability, one of the least likely futures. Given the volatility and fundamental unpredictability of most important facets of society, it is a common mistake to believe it is possible to determine what is "the most likely future " or "the probable future" and then to plan for that. Unfortunately, "the most likely future" seldom eventuates, and often is among "the least likely futures" in reality.
Thus, alternative futures should be cast as true alternatives, not as "high," "low," or "middle" scenarios around a single set of assumptions, nor as "ideal," "failed," or "probable" futures with only the latter being assumed to be the "true" and viable alternative.

V. "The future" cannot be "predicted," but "preferred futures" can and should be envisioned, invented, implemented, continuously evaluated, revised, and re-envisioned.
Thus another major task of futures studies is to facilitate individuals and groups in formulating, implementing, monitoring, and re-envisioning their preferred futures. "Preferred futures" are not impossible "utopias," incapable of achievement. And they certainly are not "dystopias"--bad, fearful, thoroughly undesirable futures (both "utopias" and especially "dystopias" are characteristic of many stories, movies, and television shows said to be set in the future). Preferred futures are "eutopias"--the best possible real world we can imagine in the present, and achieve through our effort and luck.
Neither are preferred futures "blueprints" to be followed blindly and inevitably forward. They are one's current vision of the best which can be achieved. They are articulated joyfully, implemented carefully, and constantly monitored, re-evaluated, changed, or strengthened on the basis of new information, fears, and hopes learned as time goes by in pursuit of the dream.

VI. Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous.
While some of the future is contained in the present (and/or the past) and thus "known" (and/or "knowable") to everyone in the present, much of the future is novel and not currently or previously experienced. When these unprecedented aspects of the future are presented to people, they often react in shock and disbelief because of their unfamiliarity, declaring it to be a "ridiculous" or perhaps even "obscene" idea.

VII. If futurists expect to be useful, they should expect to be ridiculed and for their ideas initially to be rejected.
Some of their ideas may deserve ridicule and rejection, but even useful ideas about the future may also be ridiculed since they lie outside of the ideas, beliefs, and experiences of anyone who has not yet thought seriously about the future.
Thus, decision makers, and the general public, if they wish useful information about the future, should expect it to be unconventional and often shocking, offensive, and seemingly ridiculous. Futurists, however, have the additional burden of making the initially-ridiculous idea plausible by marshaling appropriate evidence and weaving alternative scenarios of its possible developments which ultimately do make sense and are actionable by people in the present.

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One day Stuart and I will get around to finishing our "7 sins of present/past-oriented thinking," which will cover similar problems.

Jamais blog is a must read for futurists. As I might say in my hung-lish or engl-arian: IT IS Jó.


Jake.