Animation and Futures

In my 3D animation and design courses today, our class was given a brief history of the art of animation. Our instructor, once an professor at Cal Arts, a Disney Animator, and an industry professional for many years, began with some of the first cave drawings dated around 18-20,000 BC.

Claiming that the idea of capturing action through picture, even in a single frame,
was a basic form of animation, some members of the animation community will date these ancient pictograms as the roots of the art.

We were then shown examples of Greecian ceramic work, on which figures were shown in a variety of poses circling the vase. If you were to spin the vase, the figurines would move together in a one action animation. Actions depicted varied from hunting, walking, warfare, sexual practices, and religious ceremony.

Our history lesson then jumped ahead to the end of the 19th C and the beginning of the 20th C to what is regarded as the most recent and profound development of Animation--it use as an entertainment medium.

From here our history encompased many of the well and lesser known names in animation to date. Walt Disney (and his troop of animators, the Old Nine),
Momotaro, Osamu Tezuka, Takehata, Miyazaki...all of these animators were forming what would become major industries in their respective cultures. Different Styles, themes and Characters would develop, but these iconic persons were beginning traditions.
By proving that animated films could effectively hold the attention of an audience for more than a few minutes, these pioneering artists and directors established the art as a popular form of entertainment, a money making industry, and some of the first examples of virtual worlds able to engage the emotional faculties of the mind.

That is where i am heading with this. Afterall, this is Futures Studies Right.

Recapping the incredible growth of the industry over the past 100 years:
The Disney Empire, Beginnings of Anime TV animation, Mech-animation, UPA studios,
Anime as Blockbusters: Akira, Grave of the Fireflies, Kiki's Delivery Service. British, Russian, and European Shorts, Pixar, Dreamworks, CG animation software,
production Oustsourcing, cable channels devoted to animation, Budget balloon in 3D,
and then...


the future of animation.

We covered such topics as...
1) Continued Growth of the industry, especially in China and India where already HUGE animation schools are opening up.

2) Collapse of the "art", and Saturationof the "industry"...


and unfortunately that was about it.

One question was asked concerning the prospects of an animation industry here in Hawai'i. There is talk of it...unfortunately it appears that is all there is currently.


This is, I believe, a case in which the work of a futures study of the industry would be useful...
Our teacher did a wonderful job of leading us up to the present day, but then accomplished little more than 1.5 scenarios for guiding our concepts of the industry's futures.

There was no discussion of Transformation or Controlled Growth scenarios. The Idea of Collapse was only addressed in one of its forms.


Ideas that are in need of address:

--If animation in its most abstract forms is being dated back to 20,000 or 5000 years, we should also be bouncing ideas off the concept of 20,000 years out as best we can, searching the rediculum of our imagintions, if only to open up our minds to the prospectus of this industry. We should also be engaged in scanning the industry 35, 50, 100 years out...reading what we can from the explosive past 100 years in animation and imagining how to expand upon this.


--Because it seems that increases in available technology have led to the major leaps of the animation industry of the recent past ( Disney' s Moviola, TV markets diversify/expand audience, 3D animation software), It seems that a scan of horizon and well-over-the-rainbow technology scans are necessary when anticipating any futures of animation. Topics that should be explored: Submersive environments, Animation as an interactive art, the development of Motion Capture, New Spaces for Animation...

--So Far, Distinct Cultures have taken very diverse Directions in expanding and crating animation. What will the newly empowered and educated populations of China and India come up with? Instead of begin seen as a threat to American animation jobs, shouldn't we be intrigued to see what kinds of creations will be the result. Japanese Anime is very dissimilar to Pixar films, at least so seems to be the consensus of my class and my instructor. Therefore we can prepare for the worst (an explosion of animators saturating all markets and driving down animation wages), but we must also recognize the potential ... There will be a numerous pool of talented individuals with new stories to tell, a new culture to extract into the animation world, new experiences to share and disseminate to the growing global audience.

-- My instructor is very interested in saving and propigating the "12 principles of animation" as put down by Frank Thomas and Ollie Johnston in their Disney animation comepndium The Illusion of Life. As a new student to animation I find that these concepts are still vague understandings of words in relation to art, and yet I also question these terms applicability to Virtual Spaces and making mental connections between observers and their visual field. Disney Studios was very successful in taking the concept of cartoon, and turning it into a medium in which the empathies of the audience could be sparked. It was no longer just a medium which could be laguhed at, but now laughed with, cried with, scared and joyed with.... What could be very important to the future of alternative experience realms (video games, reality augmentation, video soaks) is to achieve understanding by the audience; making connections of believabilty and realism, through mediums which in essence are anything but real or believable.


I would be interested in exploring these topics and any others concerning animation ...
Perhaps it is a project i can undertake with the staff of the ACM so that they can better guide their ship...




Aaron Rosa