Superstruct countdown

The world's first massively multiplayer forecasting game, Superstruct, goes live in less than two weeks, and it's time for futures oriented folks to get involved!

In the first week of October, players from around the world will take on the ultimate role -- themselves, in the world of a decade from now. From the game scenario, set in 02019:

The human species has a long history of overcoming tremendous obstacles, often coming out stronger than before. Indeed, some anthropologists argue that human intelligence emerged as the consequence of the last major ice age, a period of enormous environmental stress demanding flexibility, foresight and creativity on the part of the small numbers of early Homo sapiens. Historically, those who have prophesied doom for human civilization have been proven wrong, time and again, by the capacity of our species to both adapt to and transform our conditions.

It is in this context that the Global Extinction Awareness System (GEAS) offers its forecast of the likely extinction of humankind within the next quarter-century.
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Running for nearly 50 days, the first WorldRun simulation offered a likely human extinction date sometime in the early 2040s. Subsequent modeling and confirmation tests have narrowed that likely extinction date to 2042 --just 23 years from now.

...GEAS does not argue or believe that this future is unavoidable. This is perhaps the most important element of our forecast. This is not fate. If we act now--and act with intelligence, flexibility, foresight and creativity--we can avoid the final threat. We may even come out of this period far stronger than we were before.
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GEAS has identified five superthreats and given them memorable names as a way of encouraging discussion and awareness:

* Quarantine covers the global response to declining health and pandemic disease, including the current Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ReDS) crisis.

* Ravenous focuses on the imminent collapse of the global food system, as well as debates over industrial vs. ecological agricultural models, and basic issues of access, energy, and carbon.

* Power Struggle tracks the results of energy resource peaks and the shifts in international power as nations fight for energy supremacy and the world searches for alternative energy solutions.

* Outlaw Planet embodies the volatile mix of new forms of surveillance, transparency, civil rights, and access to information as people work out new rules for human security.

* Generation Exile follows the massive "diaspora of diasporas" underway globally, as the number of refugees and migrants skyrockets in the face of climate change, economic disruption, and war.

At the top of this post is one of five videos released this week, in advance of the 6 October start date, profiling the quintet of Superthreats looming for humanity in the year 02019. Check out the rest of the videos, and start thinking about where you might find yourself a decade from today.

The game is free, open to everyone, and promises to be not only fun, but also a landmark in participatory futures work.

You'll be in good company; the number of people already signed up is in the thousands, I'm a Game Master on Superstruct, and HRCFS alumnus Jake Dunagan has just started working at Palo Alto's Institute for the Future, which is running the game, led by Jane McGonigal and Jamais Cascio.

Let's get started! Humanity has only 23 years (and 12 days) on the clock...