Posted 20 June 2009

Reducing Crime

Reduce crime by sentencing criminals to movie theaters:

"Laboratory experiments in psychology find that media violence increases aggression in the short run. We analyze whether media violence affects violent crime in the field. We exploit variation in the violence of blockbuster movies from 1995 to 2004, and study the effect on same-day assaults. We find that violent crime decreases on days with larger theater audiences for violent movies. The effect is partly due to voluntary incapacitation: between 6 P.M. and 12 A.M., a one million increase in the audience for violent movies reduces violent crime by 1.1% to 1.3%."

Source: Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?, G. Dahl, S. DellaVigna, DOI: 10.1162/qjec.2009.124.2.677, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2009, Online 2009/05/19

0 comments   ·   linkbacks
Posted 13 May 2009

Gaming the flu crisis


05/13/2009 -- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Gaming the flu crisis

Life imitates art in Coral Cross, Hawaii's groundbreaking pandemic preparedness game

HONOLULU – As uncertainty over the H1N1 ‘swine flu’ virus spreads around the world, a Hawaii-based project is resorting to an innovative strategy to engage people in protecting themselves and their communities: online gaming.

Designers at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies (HRCFS) are staging a collaborative game called Coral Cross, using game techniques to encourage participants across the islands, and beyond, to become better informed and share their views about the health crisis, including priority groups for an eventual vaccine.

“The only thing that spreads faster than a virus is information,” said project lead Stuart Candy. “Players will take concrete action trying to outpace swine flu, by spreading pandemic-preparedness knowledge faster than the disease can travel.”

Commissioned by the Hawaii Department of Health in 2008, and funded by the US federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Coral Cross was originally intended to simulate the effects of a near-future global influenza outbreak on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, and to collect critical public feedback. At the time, would-be players were generations removed from the experience of a pandemic, so the designers chose to create a ‘playable scenario’ to immerse people in a hypothetical global flu pandemic.

However, in late April, just weeks before the game was scheduled to launch -- and with other parts of the Hawaii Health Department’s pandemic preparedness effort already live -- an astonishing coincidence occurred. The real flu crisis struck. "The day after our production team filmed a mock pandemic press conference set in 2012, we were watching a real one," said Candy, "It made our alternate reality premise redundant, and called for an urgent change of strategy."

HRCFS is now retrofitting Coral Cross to ‘game’ the current swine flu crisis, and although the launch date remains unchanged, the project now aims to support real-life pandemic preparedness against the backdrop of current events. In late May, the public will be able to decode pandemic-related health information, collaborate around emergency preparedness -- and potentially influence policy. Although the strain of H1N1 currently circulating is less deadly than feared at first, the World Health Organization and CDC have cautioned that it is infecting people of all ages, and a mutation in the fall or winter could see a fiercer strain take hold in a subsequent pandemic ‘wave’.

The genre of so-called ‘serious games’ offers an increasingly popular way to engage and inform participants around hypothetical situations, and to prepare for alternative futures. In recent years, ‘Alternate Reality Games’ like After Shock and World Without Oil have proved effective in helping people imagine how their lives could be affected by large-scale systemic changes, such as an earthquake or oil crisis. Building on this genre, and with years of experience consulting on alternative futures, the HRCFS team spent months of research and development creating a plausible scenario, with accompanying media and artifacts from their hypothetical pandemic.

In the spotlight was the Coral Cross of Oahu, a fictional emergency preparedness and response agency, which was established in September 2011 after a category 5 hurricane hit the island. “The Coral Cross of Oahu was imagined as a grassroots network, a product of Obama-era public service and web savvy, organizing community responses ahead of large-scale government intervention,” explains designer Matthew Jensen. “It also played on current trends in social media and gameplay to encourage vigilance in the face of a long-term pandemic threat – perhaps an idea ahead of its time.”

These core principles, part of the narrative pre-design, now guide the redesign process. “Coral Cross switched from being an Alternate Reality Game to an Emergent Reality Game when the pandemic emerged as a real threat,” adds Jensen. While the design team has aimed to make this a fun, rewarding play experience, they also see it as an opportunity to provide real service to communities, families, and health authorities, spreading knowledge and responsible behavior in the midst of an actual health crisis.

"The Coral Cross suddenly went from being a future story element to a prototype for what a real, bottom-up emergency response could look like," says project consultant Jake Dunagan. "So, as the future invaded our present, we found ourselves asking 'What would Coral Cross do?'"

According to experience designer Nathan Verrill, the Coral Cross would motivate citizens through whatever means possible. "Even in the face of a real threat, gameplay influences behavior in a fun and engaging way," says Verrill. "We believe that gaming principles will help keep participants focused over a longer period of time, helping spread useful knowledge, while we crowdsource ideas and feedback that can influence public policy."

Though the H1N1 pandemic may not yet evolve into the global catastrophe that the 2012 ‘alternate reality’ narrative originally related, the designers are confident that their Emergent Reality Game will expose citizen-players to key possibilities, encouraging the kind of collaboration and skills that will help to keep them safe, whatever the future may hold.

Time will tell.

Participants can pre-register for Coral Cross at coralcross.org.

For additional information or interviews, please contact project lead Stuart Candy via scandy at hawaii dot edu or +1-808-956-2888.

About the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies

The Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, established by the Hawaii State Legislature in 1971, is a world-renowned institution for futures research, consulting, and education. It has been instrumental in training generations of futurists, in the development and spread of judicial foresight, and in bringing foresight and futures thinking to organizations, agencies, and businesses around the world. The Center, in its theories, methods, design and practice strives to be the living embodiment of futures studies.
0 comments   ·   linkbacks
Posted 13 April 2009

Coral Cross is here to help


How would you survive a global influenza pandemic?

The Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies (HRCFS) is proud to announce an opportunity for members of the public across the island of Oahu, and around the world, to answer that question for themselves, through an immersive "playable scenario" set in the near future.

Our latest project, Coral Cross, is being produced for the state Department of Health (DOH) and funded by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) based in Atlanta.

Coral Cross builds on several years of pioneering work by HRCFS researchers and our collaborators, in designing and staging "experiential futures", including a quartet of immersive scenarios for Hawaii 2050, and the FoundFutures initiative of Stuart Candy and Jake Dunagan, bringing alternative futures into everyday life. It's also inspired by an emerging genre of serious "alternate reality games" (ARGs), examples of which include World Without Oil (dealing with the onset of an energy crisis), After Shock (earthquake), Traces of Hope (civil war), and Superstruct (a deadly synergy of existential threats). These have successfully sought both to entertain and to educate people about topics of public concern, supporting a deeper degree of engagement than many traditional public-sector outreach efforts.

A network of volunteers established Coral Cross of Oahu in 02011, according to the hypothetical scenario created by HRCFS. This grass-roots organisation steps forward to aid the island community as it braces for a pandemic crisis.

The project will use a variety of online and offline media to simulate the onset of a flu pandemic, as seen from Oahu, on a timescale where one day in real life equals one month inside the scenario. It breaks new ground as the first project of its kind to revolve around a pandemic.

By bringing an abstract possible future into concrete experience, Coral Cross will enable people not only to think through, but also to feel through, this type of disruptive scenario before it happens, contributing to a more informed and better prepared public. It will tell a compelling story as well as exploring important issues which have scientists and public health experts increasingly worried. There were three influenza pandemics during the last hundred years, the worst of which began in 01918, just as the First World War was ending. The "Spanish flu" claimed many millions more lives than the war.†

The project is one piece of a multi-part public engagement effort run by DOH, under the banner "Vaccine: Surviving Hawaii's Next Pandemic". One important aim is to generate discussion about which groups should be prioritised for receiving vaccine against the pandemic flu strain, once such a vaccine becomes available.

Coral Cross is free and will run in the second half of May. Anyone interested can now visit coralcross.org to sign up.

For further information, please contact HRCFS researcher and project director Stuart Candy on +1-808-956-2888 or scandy at hawaii dot edu.

† World War I claimed an estimated 10 million lives [Britannica Concise Encyclopedia], while the so-called Spanish flu caused 40-50 million deaths worldwide [World Health Organization].
0 comments   ·   linkbacks
Posted 04 April 2009

Futures Studies 101

Futures Studies 101

 

San Diego Community College (San Diego, California) is the most recent in a growing number of community colleges that are beginning courses and certificates in futures studies.

 

After more than a year of preparation, consultation, and bureaucratic maneuvering, Jelena Cingel Bodinet announced that SDCC received official permission from the California university system to begin Futures Studies 101 as part of a two-year certificate in futures studies there.

 

The Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, among others, played a role in helping SDCC develop the course and certificate.

 

For more information contact Jelena Cingel Bodinet <jelenacingel@gmail.com> 

0 comments   ·   linkbacks
Posted 31 March 2009

Form Follows Fable


"Form Follows Fable"
A Futures Salon with Bryan Boyer
Friedman Room, Saunders Hall 624
2pm-330pm, Wednesday 1 April 02009

Once all the zoning laws have been cited, the richness of the site exposed as constructed, the minutia of fabrication turn out to be simply minutia, the algorithms run their course, the discipline disbanded, and the history books pillaged bare and then burnt... what is left to stand on? What tiny, shoddy piece of ground may the designer find to plant their feet, grab hold of their bootstraps, and make manifest a project? There's no ground left at all; we're all astronauts orbiting a toxic earth, a hunk of rock on which we find it increasingly difficult to agree upon anything. The boundaries and edges that architects have been trained to exploit - between cultures, places, ideologies - are vanishing with the breathable air of our atmosphere.

Finding themselves floating, the architect now awakens and does what any sufficiently bored person would: they dream up stories that explain the universe, their place in it, the things around them, and their own output. In its best moments, architecture, much like a fable, operates as an alternate reality engine by giving shape, texture, and orientation to the vacuum. Letting Form Follow Fable yields a rich architecture of mysteries and clues that is designed to be legible to the client, the public, and fellow architects alike...


BRYAN BOYER is a designer and writer working at the intersection of architecture and politics. Equally at home in the worlds of critical design theory and practice, since 02004 he has been Senior Editor at the online architecture hub, Archinect.com, and he is currently in residence at the Finnish innovation agency, Sitra. Trained at the Rhode Island School of Design and the Harvard Graduate School of Design, Boyer's internationally-noted Master's thesis project critically and controversially reimagined the United States Capitol building.

The FUTURES SALON is an occasional colloquium series held by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies and has previously featured author-activist Bill McKibben, Jamais Cascio, cofounder of Worldchanging and research affiliate at Institute for the Future, and Alexander Rose, executive director of the Long Now Foundation.

This event is presented with the cooperation of the UHM Department of Political Science.


[Images from Our New Capitol courtesy of Bryan Boyer]
0 comments   ·   linkbacks
Posted 12 March 2009

massively-parallel and temporally-extended patterns?

Computational Social Science is an emerging field "that leverages the capacity to collect and analyze data at a scale that may reveal patterns of individual and group behaviors" that have never been seen before.

See SCIENCE, Vol. 323, 6 February 2009, p. 721-3.

Every time we send an email, make a mobile phone call, swipe our credit card, are caught on a public surveillance video camera and the like this digital information is stored and retained for years. It so far is not available for social science research. If and when it is, with proper safeguards for privacy and the like, it will allow researchers to see patterns of behavior on a scale never even remotely approached.

"To date, research on human interactions has relied mainly on one-time, self-reported data on relationships". All we have had is a blurry snapshot. Soon, we may have data on millions of those relationships over time enabling us to see and understand patterns that were invisible to us before.

Among other things, "such data may provide useful epidemiological insights: How might a pathogen, such as an influenza, driven by physical proximity, spread through a population"?

And many more such patterns of interaction.

Since it is also subject to abuse, developing protocols for using these data is imperative, but if done right, the leap in understanding could be immense.

Read the article.

0 comments   ·   linkbacks
Posted 09 March 2009

Sick, sick, sick--and hope

The pathological economy.

 

Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, recently gave a kind of "State of the Country" address to the National People's Congress.  He spoke at length about challenges to China's economy because of the ongoing global economic collapse. According to a report on the talk by Michael Wines, in the New York Times, Wen "reserved some of his strongest words for the Chinese consumer, whose legendary frugality has kept China's consumer goods and services industries from growing anywhere near the rate of the national economy. Wne said bolstering consumer demand must become 'a long-term, strategic principle and a basic point of departure for stimulating economic growth.'"

 

If there ever was an utterly honest statement of the utterly stupid and indeed pathological idiocy of the current global economic fantasmogram, this is it: unless people can be forced to buy products they don't want, the system will fail. So don't be frugal, Comrades! Don't save. Don't stop contributing to energy and materials waste and to environmental destruction by refraining from buying unwanted products. NO! Shop till you drop. Consume like there is no tomorrow in order to keep the system staggeringly alive for one more day (though, if you do continue to consume to your--and everyone's--maximum ability, there indeed will be no tomorrow)!

 

Of course, it is not just the crazy "Communists" in China. This is exactly the same logic behind the Capitalist bailouts and stimulus packages of the US government--our government steals wealth from future generations and gives it to banks so they will loan it to people brainwashed by advertising and other exhortations so they will buy, buy, buy.

 

The government also gives "stimulus" money to individuals and organizations so they too will buy, buy, buy (or hire, hire, hire), not so much because anyone really needs the products to be bought--much less the jobs to be filled--but simply to keep the insanely destructive system going by keeping people busy at needless jobs so they can be eligible for more credit so they can go further into debt by acquiring needless products.

 

Sick, sick, sick.

 

Surely we can do better.

 

Of course we can! It is no mystery. Simply transition at all deliberate speed to the alternatives offered for decades by Hazel Henderson, James Robertson, Herman Daly, Paul Hawken, Ira Rohter, and many others!

 

Jim Dator

0 comments   ·   linkbacks