Peak Oil and Hawaii

Peak oil era will be hard on Hawaii
By Manfred Zapka and Jim Dator
Special to the Star-Bulletin

Editor's note: In the next decade or two, a global
energy crisis will be thrust upon us; the changes it
brings will be felt first in Hawaii, possibly with a
more devastating effect here than in the rest of the
world. Hawaii must begin preparations now to cushion
the effects, say the authors of this cautionary essay.
The writers are a University of Hawaii political
scientist and a UH-educated civil engineer. In
addition, it was signed by 21 others representing a
range of scientific disciplines in Hawaii; three chose
to sign as private citizens.

DURING the past months "peak oil" has been the subject
of a heated discussion in the media, including in
Hawaii. The state's energy security is too important
for us to allow discussions of future energy options
to become a battle about peak oil, pro or con.

Peak oil ought to be understood as a helpful
scientific tool to model the depletion of conventional
oil reserves and to develop a sense of urgency for
taking steps to mitigate its effects. The peaking of
individual oil fields and oil regions has been
observed always to follow a similar production curve.
Global peak oil is simply an extrapolation from what
is known about individual field depletion.

The arrival of peak oil does not mean that we have run
out of oil. Rather, it means that production rates
will start an inevitable decline. When peak oil
arrives there will still be a huge amount of oil in
the ground, yet the ability to get it out at
reasonable cost and energy will decrease as the
reserve depletion accelerates. Peak oil does not
signal the end of the world, but the start of a new
chapter for the global community.

No serious oil analyst disputes the fact of peak oil.
The debate is about when, not if. Most published peak
oil dates are between 2010 and 2017, give or take a
few years. There is near-universal agreement that our
current production base of conventional oil is
declining at a rate of 4 percent to 8 percent per year
while demand is growing at a rate of about 2 percent
per year. The evolving demand-supply gap has to be
filled with new conventional oil, unconventional oil,
nonpetroleum sources and conservation.

ALL OF THESE can play a role, but all take
considerable time, money and effort -- and require
prompt decisions and actions that have not yet been
sufficiently contemplated, much less made. Moreover,
any decisions about alternatives to oil need to be
made after assessing their impact on everything else
in Hawaii. For example, should we use our land for
upscale housing for the rich, or for "affordable
housing," or to grow food, or to grow biomass for
fuel? Do we have enough land to satisfy all demands
via the market, or do we need to develop policies
that, together with the market, allocate uses?

The most promising response to peak oil is timely
migration to new sources of energy supply and serious
conservation. According to a U.S. Department of
Energy-sponsored study, peak oil mitigation efforts
need to start at least 20 years before peak oil occurs
to avoid serious supply shortfalls. The study
forecasts catastrophic economic and human consequences
if mitigation is delayed until the fuel crunch
arrives.

HAWAII HAS one of the highest rates of per capita oil
consumption in the world. Our rate in Hawaii is twice
that of the U.S. average; four times the average of
Europe and 28 times that of China. Moreover, oil not
only fuels our transportation and
electricity-generating plants, it also fuels the
airplanes that fuel our tourist-based economy and the
ships that bring in almost all of our food and
consumer goods. Un- or insufficiently mitigated oil
supply shortfalls will hit Hawaii much harder than
almost any other place in the world.

There are several supply and demand-side opportunities
for Hawaii that are attractive and make economic
sense. While some might appear to be "uneconomical"
now under assumptions of ever-increasing energy
supplies and a healthy economy, they will prove to be
prudent and forward-looking remedies in the years and
decades to come. Hawaii's hope for a sustainable
future is best served through serious and meaningful
plans to mitigate our over-dependence on oil before
any supply shortfalls appear.

BUT LET'S pretend that there are "huge new oil
resources" -- as yet undiscovered reserves or new
revolutionary oil technologies for increased
extraction rates (even though there actually is little
chance that we will find the "10 new Saudi Arabias"
that we urgently need in the next two decades).

With unabated carbon release through the burning of
fossil fuels, global warming still threatens Hawaii in
tangible forms. Rising sea levels within the currently
anticipated range will inundate wide stretches of land
that are home for many residents of Hawaii -- some of
the most expensive real estate and beautiful coastline
in the world. Critical transport infrastructure
(airports, harbors) and fresh water also will be
affected by significantly rising sea levels. Lowering
our consumption of fossil fuels is one prudent and
urgent response to global warming.

Developing technology and policies to lower oil
dependence is a great opportunity for Hawaii. Not
taking the peak oil seriously or adopting lukewarm
mitigation measures might prove to be the most costly
mistake we will ever make.

Manfred J. Zapka is a graduate of the University of
Hawaii. He works as a consulting engineer and writes
on issues concerning technology and change scenarios
for the peak oil era. Jim Dator is professor of
political science at the University of Hawaii-Manoa
and director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures
Studies.

Also signing this essay: Robert Brewer, private
citizen; Jim Dator, UH Political Science; Roger Davis,
UH Institute of Geophysics and Planetology; Fred
Buennebier, UH Geology and Geophysics; Charles
Helsley, UH Sea Grant; Garrett Ito, UH Geology and
Geophysics; Adam Johnson, UH Geology and Geophysics;
Barbara Keating, UH Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and
Planetology; Jeremy Kowlasczyk, UH Physics; Hans
Krock, UH Ocean Engineering and Energy Systems; Penny
Larin, UH Geology and Geophysics; John Learned, UH
Physics and Astronomy; Davidson Luehring, private
citizen; Fred Mackenzie, UH Oceanography; Gary
McMurtry, UH School of Ocean and Earth Science and
Technology; Ralph Moberly, UH Geology and Geophysics;
Michael Mottl, UH Oceanography; Tobia Owen, UH
Institute for Astronomy; Mark Reese, Hawaii Natural
Energy Institute; Alan Rowland, private citizen;
Benjamin Sellers, UH Geology and Geophysics; Patrick
Takahashi, Hawaii Natural Energy Institute; Manfred
Zapka, Marc M. Siah & Associates, a civil engineering
firm.

2006 Annual Report