User-friendly futures...

...and future-friendly users.

The central tenet of the Manoa school of futures studies is that the future acts on the present through the pull of "images of the future" held by individuals, groups, nations, and cultures. Nonetheless, the nature and operation of this connection remains undertheorized and poorly understood within the field. Still, most would agree that the dominant images of the future in the world today reflect the value structure and telos of western culture and capital.

Futurists have had a difficult time unmasking common assumptions about change and alternatives held by leaders, scholars, and the public at large. However, there seems to be a critical mass of futurists paying close attention to the representational aspects of futures studies, often frustrated by the glaring lack of social and political response relative to the importance of the issues being elucidated within the field, and the seeming clarity with which these issues have been explained. It appears to be the case that it is not the message that is the problem, but rather the medium. White papers, journal articles, even news reports are demonstrably weak in mobilizing foresight into action.

Jose Ramos, researcher at the Centre for Social Change Research, Queensland University of Technology, Australia, has been leading the call for alternative ways of communicating futures. He has also noted the cognitive biases, cultural predispositions, and corporate colonization of media that make for a difficult (and sometimes hostile) arena for futurists trying to communicate widely and effectively to the general public. Ramos:

Making the case for change is hard as future-related knowledge is not as empirically apparent to the general public or even to practitioners of conventional science. While a tsunami one mile away makes us run for the hills, Jim Dator's tsunamis of change, ten to fifty years away, most often draws scant public attention, and we become the proverbial boiled frogs in the slowly heating pot. So futures challenges and issues require concrete clarification and definition in ways that provoke public conversation and responses. People's awareness, assumptions and field of vision live in the domain of communication and, deeper still, consciousness.

A survey of the history of futures studies, and my own recent experience working with the government of Hawaii, has made it clear to me that effective communication of the core concepts of alternative futures is a rare and fugitive accomplishment. But there is cause for hope. Especially in its recent projects with government and industries, the HRCFS has been developing and utilizing techniques to take the future out of the realm of the abstract, and to put participants in situations in which they can "feel" the alternativity of futures at an emotional and visceral level. Once the affective register has served its purpose, we then engage participants in a more intellectual conversation about possibilities and choices. Our experience has been that the conversations have more energy and meaning for those who have made an emotional attachment to the scenario. While not always the case, people seem to "get it" when they actively "experience" a future with all their senses. Among our techniques, we have produced "immersive scenarios" with actors, props, and storylines which cast participants in certain roles appropriate to the nature of the scenario. We are designing and producing an audiowalk of alternative futures for Honolulu's Chinatown. We have also designed artifacts-from-the-future to act as tangible conversation pieces for our workshop groups, and as items to strategically leave in unlikely places to creatively inflect the present with anomaly. The cognitive dissonance these strange and anachronistic "found" items can provoke the discoverer to personally engage with the story being told by the artifact, and can be a subversive way to inject futures into the everyday--what Ramos calls "future-jamming."

All of these projects are experiments in ways to make people aware of possible futures, and to take stock of their role and responsibility in creating futures. These might be called minor attempts at controlled future-shock therapy. A growing number of futurists and futures organizations are involved in similar experiments, but like us, laboring under a slow process of trial-and-error in discovering the most effective techniques. So, a systematic appraisal of how certain techniques change perceptions about change, and make the invisible visible is a needed and necessary initiative.

In a recent post at IFTF's Future Now, Jason Tester, has outlined what could be a highly useful framework for exploring and developing a range of approaches emerging in futures media. Tester analogizes the wave of new (or newly re-imagined) futures techniques-- such as immersive workshops, online role-playing games, open-source scenarios, artifacts-from-the-future, and cinema-- to a similar period in the development of the field of human-computer interaction. Thus, he dubs these burgeoning approaches in futures studies "Human-Future Interaction," defined as:

the art and science of effectively and ethically communicating research, forecasts, and scenarios about trends and potential futures. For technology design, human-computer interaction has become the framework that links the capabilities of technology, the behaviors of users, and the goals of designers and developers. These three constituents have very similar counterparts in futures work, and human-future interaction should serve much the same role--connecting the capabilities of design tools and media formats with the strategic needs of users, shaped by the goals and insights of researchers and forecasters.

Tester calls for a more systematic and iterative method of understanding how people process information about the future in order to find the most effective ways to engage groups, organizations, and individuals in productive conversations about (and action toward) possible and preferred futures. He notes:

This isn’t just about giving a catchy label to work already being done. Thinking of the creation of futures media and related experiences as a structured process will simply lead to better results—media that engages a broader audience in discussion about trends shaping our shared future, and experiences that engage this audience in far more personal ways than a wordy report ever could.

And the tools of creative and effective futures communication would not just be available and appropriate for futurists. An ethical agenda the HRCFS shares with Tester, Ramos, and most others in the field, is the desire to provide vehicles to democratize and de-colonize the future. These new techniques and media offer just these vehicles. Tester:

But I think there’s an even more fundamental--and exciting--reason [for proliferation of futures media]: a growing view of the future as a medium that anyone can affect and co-create, and less as looming inevitability to be passively consumed. Driven by democratic media and open platforms, more people see themselves as potential agents of influence and change.

It will be exciting to see if a pattern (or contact) language does develop around these concepts. Tester:

Much as HCI has evolved into a cross-disciplinary umbrella that brings interface designers and computer scientists to the same table as artists and social scientists, so too will human-future interaction benefit by breaking outside the walls of think tanks and traditional forecasting groups. Let's learn from and create with game designers, experience designers, community organizers, information visualizers, scientists and researchers, educators, ethicists, social activists, and users and participants.

Absolutely! However, to reflect our commitment to plurality and alternatives, I suspect we'll be referring to Human-FutureS Interaction on this blog!

So in the meantime, we will post the progress of our work here, and look forward to learning from others.

Animation and Futures

In my 3D animation and design courses today, our class was given a brief history of the art of animation. Our instructor, once an professor at Cal Arts, a Disney Animator, and an industry professional for many years, began with some of the first cave drawings dated around 18-20,000 BC.

Claiming that the idea of capturing action through picture, even in a single frame,
was a basic form of animation, some members of the animation community will date these ancient pictograms as the roots of the art.

We were then shown examples of Greecian ceramic work, on which figures were shown in a variety of poses circling the vase. If you were to spin the vase, the figurines would move together in a one action animation. Actions depicted varied from hunting, walking, warfare, sexual practices, and religious ceremony.

Our history lesson then jumped ahead to the end of the 19th C and the beginning of the 20th C to what is regarded as the most recent and profound development of Animation--it use as an entertainment medium.

From here our history encompased many of the well and lesser known names in animation to date. Walt Disney (and his troop of animators, the Old Nine),
Momotaro, Osamu Tezuka, Takehata, Miyazaki...all of these animators were forming what would become major industries in their respective cultures. Different Styles, themes and Characters would develop, but these iconic persons were beginning traditions.
By proving that animated films could effectively hold the attention of an audience for more than a few minutes, these pioneering artists and directors established the art as a popular form of entertainment, a money making industry, and some of the first examples of virtual worlds able to engage the emotional faculties of the mind.

That is where i am heading with this. Afterall, this is Futures Studies Right.

Recapping the incredible growth of the industry over the past 100 years:
The Disney Empire, Beginnings of Anime TV animation, Mech-animation, UPA studios,
Anime as Blockbusters: Akira, Grave of the Fireflies, Kiki's Delivery Service. British, Russian, and European Shorts, Pixar, Dreamworks, CG animation software,
production Oustsourcing, cable channels devoted to animation, Budget balloon in 3D,
and then...


the future of animation.

We covered such topics as...
1) Continued Growth of the industry, especially in China and India where already HUGE animation schools are opening up.

2) Collapse of the "art", and Saturationof the "industry"...


and unfortunately that was about it.

One question was asked concerning the prospects of an animation industry here in Hawai'i. There is talk of it...unfortunately it appears that is all there is currently.


This is, I believe, a case in which the work of a futures study of the industry would be useful...
Our teacher did a wonderful job of leading us up to the present day, but then accomplished little more than 1.5 scenarios for guiding our concepts of the industry's futures.

There was no discussion of Transformation or Controlled Growth scenarios. The Idea of Collapse was only addressed in one of its forms.


Ideas that are in need of address:

--If animation in its most abstract forms is being dated back to 20,000 or 5000 years, we should also be bouncing ideas off the concept of 20,000 years out as best we can, searching the rediculum of our imagintions, if only to open up our minds to the prospectus of this industry. We should also be engaged in scanning the industry 35, 50, 100 years out...reading what we can from the explosive past 100 years in animation and imagining how to expand upon this.


--Because it seems that increases in available technology have led to the major leaps of the animation industry of the recent past ( Disney' s Moviola, TV markets diversify/expand audience, 3D animation software), It seems that a scan of horizon and well-over-the-rainbow technology scans are necessary when anticipating any futures of animation. Topics that should be explored: Submersive environments, Animation as an interactive art, the development of Motion Capture, New Spaces for Animation...

--So Far, Distinct Cultures have taken very diverse Directions in expanding and crating animation. What will the newly empowered and educated populations of China and India come up with? Instead of begin seen as a threat to American animation jobs, shouldn't we be intrigued to see what kinds of creations will be the result. Japanese Anime is very dissimilar to Pixar films, at least so seems to be the consensus of my class and my instructor. Therefore we can prepare for the worst (an explosion of animators saturating all markets and driving down animation wages), but we must also recognize the potential ... There will be a numerous pool of talented individuals with new stories to tell, a new culture to extract into the animation world, new experiences to share and disseminate to the growing global audience.

-- My instructor is very interested in saving and propigating the "12 principles of animation" as put down by Frank Thomas and Ollie Johnston in their Disney animation comepndium The Illusion of Life. As a new student to animation I find that these concepts are still vague understandings of words in relation to art, and yet I also question these terms applicability to Virtual Spaces and making mental connections between observers and their visual field. Disney Studios was very successful in taking the concept of cartoon, and turning it into a medium in which the empathies of the audience could be sparked. It was no longer just a medium which could be laguhed at, but now laughed with, cried with, scared and joyed with.... What could be very important to the future of alternative experience realms (video games, reality augmentation, video soaks) is to achieve understanding by the audience; making connections of believabilty and realism, through mediums which in essence are anything but real or believable.


I would be interested in exploring these topics and any others concerning animation ...
Perhaps it is a project i can undertake with the staff of the ACM so that they can better guide their ship...




Aaron Rosa

Dator on Obama, blogs, and privacy

With Jim's familiar caveat about interviews (it is really just acting in a drama someone else scripts), local station KITV recently featured Jim Dator in a "story" about Barack Obama and bloggers.


Not sure how long this will be up, so check it out soon.

More Korean Press

Have we mentioned the importance of Korea in the "Dream Society" lately?!

Well, here is another Korean Times article on the subject, featuring our dear leader, Jim Dator.

exerpt:

No other country has thought in detail about how pop culture can revive a nation’s economy, but for Korea it was the basis for economic development, said the professor. He credited governmental policies for this success.

News from Dr. Seo

Recent Futures Ph.D. and current futurist at Korea Telecom Yongseok Seo was featured in an article about the "Dream Society" in Korea.


An exerpt:

As Seo is currently doing research in the futures center at KT, he is searching for more ways to understand this new idea.

``Helping people to nurture their creativity will be essential because that’s what the future will be living off of,’’ he stressed.

Similar to the ``digital divide’’ among those who can and cannot use digital technology, ``creative divide’’ is a possibility where a polar effect happens among those who can and cannot create.

In preparation for the Dream Society, the researcher says these are some of the things that can be prepared ahead of time.

``But then again, I’m a conservative thinker while Professor Dator is much more radical,’’ Seo said. ``So he may have some more revolutionary ideas.’’