--I'm taking a short break from the depths of dissertation writing to share an insightful comment from noted political theorist William Connolly. This comes from a footnote on p.216 in his groundbreaking book Neuropolitics.
I say possibilities, not probabilities. A key role of theory is to probe the positive possibilities that might otherwise be overlooked and that, indeed, may be unrecognized because they have been generated by new circumstances of being. The next thing to do is to inspire the pursuit of those possibilities that are most desirable. Paying too much attention to 'probabilities' undercuts these efforts. For, most of the time, the recognized register of probabilities consists of things that are already part of the established practice. Those who pursued Christianity, secularism, feminism, gay rights, and so forth at the key moments of their emergence from below the register of established practice were not probabilists of the sort annointed by most social scientists. They were acting to bring something new into the world even more than they were watching to see what was already there. And each time a project succeeds, in a large or small way, it provides another piece of evidence, for those who will look, against the ontology of much of contemporary social science. Possibilities are for visionaries and activists, probabilities are for spectators and consultants.
Connolly's observation captures important features of the approach that the field of futures studies (especially as taught and practiced at the Manoa School) attempts. The common over-emphasis on the likelihood of certain futures creates theoretical and anticipatory blindspots. Jim Dator has been tirelessly making similar critiques for decades and has not only recognized the limitations of mainstream academic (and pop) approaches to theorizing possibility, but he has also developed conceptual, pedagogical, and methodological tools for overcoming these aporias. It is nice to see these ideas finding purchase among increasing numbers of scholars, and hopefully most will discover (if not the source to begin with) the wealth of work already done in futures studies. Maybe we're finally seeing some "emergence from below" of Manoa-styled futures.
There is much more to say and discuss here, but I should probably get back to work...
That's right futures folks, get 'em while they're hot! Each shirt features the Dator Face design and is printed when you order it. A perfect gift for that aspiring futurist or that special someone (of the humanoid body type).
We are using the cafepress.com service, which prints, ships the custom orders more efficiently and effectivly then we can do in house. It is an example of a new way to produce products, with rapid, individual production versus the older style of mass production. The Dator face is a design I created a year ago, but it's expensive and time consuming to produce them our selves so they were never really available. There is no markup, so the savings are passed on to you. I hope you enjoy the shirts.
It seems copyright, DRM, rootkits, end-user-license-agreements and other methods of content 'enhancement' and control are proliferating. How might the convergence of expanding intellectual and cultural property regimes with neural/sensory technologies effect our experience of life in the future? The HRCFS and some of our most talented friends put together a short film (in 24 hours) representing one possible scenario.
These four short video clips are from the experiential scenarios designed and staged by HRCFS staff for the Hawaii 2050 kickoff on 26 August 02006. Each is pared down from experiences lasting about 20 minutes, that ran concurrently in four rooms at the Dole Ballrooms in Honolulu. The 530-or-so attendees were split up and given no clues as to what kind of future they would be entering, but facilitated discussions were held afterwards to draw out people's views about the possible, probable and preferable elements of each scenario. Feedback on this process was overwhelmingly positive and has encouraged us to continue developing other ways to communicate and provoke the consideration of alternative futures.
"Orange" Hawaii in 2050 is a result of continued economic growth.
The "Silver" alternative suggests possible conditions in 2050 some years after a socio-economic collapse.
The "Maroon" future exemplifies a disciplined or self-restrained society.
"Blue" depicts a society that has undergone a high-tech transformation.
The textual scenarios developed by HRCFS, which were used as a basis for these immersive versions, can be found here. But the experiential versions, captured in part by these short video clips, made a far more interesting starting point for kickoff attendees. The more comprehensive textual versions were used to deepen understanding of the scenarios during discussion, and they also refer to research into which interested parties can drill down as far as as they wish.
Since designing and staging these four experiential scenarios, which kicked off a statewide public discussion of alternative futures ("Hawaii 2050"), we at HRCFS were not quite aware of riding the crest of a wave. But this methodological shift from textual scenarios to richer use of media is rapidly occurring across the futures domain at the moment.
Our inspiration came partly from Manoa School alumna Wendy Schultz who made the point in a podcast recorded in 02005 that the artistic and sensory evocation of futures is a massively underexplored way of getting people out of what Dator likes to call, with apologies to C. Wright Mills, the "crackpot realism of the present".
Another influence has been the artifacts-from-the-future meme, probably best known from Wired Magazine's "Found" feature, but developed in no small measure by our futures colleague and designer extraordinaire Jason Tester at IFTF who recently wrote a very interesting blog post on "The case for human-future interaction". Our own Jake Dunagan has just produced a highly thoughtful piece around similar ideas, "User-friendly futures".
As Jamais Cascio, who presented to the Honolulu Futures Salon back in August on "immersive futurism", insightfully remarks in a blog post: "do not underestimate the memetic power of good photo editing skills and a quality color printer." Which leads us to desktop publishing as part of the technological reason why this change is happening now ... though of course, the trend is not confined to graphic design or print alone, but is concerned with using of the most engaging communication methods and media available, whatever the situation demands. (The words "anything but text" are being uttered increasingly often around the office...)
This shift in communicative strategy is quite simply a matter of using what works, as best as one can; hence the paradox that different futurists are converging on similar solutions to the problem of expressing the diversity of possibilities. We learned this week that the Belgian futures consultancy Pantopicon is developing many of the same approaches: viz. this blog entry, and this elegantly simple ad-from-the-future. We hope to hear of many other examples along these lines, so please draw them to our attention so we can all keep learning from each other.
Taking the Sous out of Sousveillance, or forgive them Jamais for they know not what they do.
The French Constitutional Council has approved a law that criminalizes the filming or broadcasting of acts of violence by people other than professional journalists. The law could lead to the imprisonment of eyewitnesses who film acts of police violence, or operators of Web sites publishing the images, one French civil liberties group warned on Tuesday. link
In other news, I've come across a couple of excellent blogs for those interested in designing futures. Check out: Dori's Moblog (design anthropologist in Chicago) A Thousand Tomorrows (futures consultancy in Belgium)
People have a harder time coming up with alternative solutions to a problem when they are part of a group, new research suggests. ... The researchers speculate that when a group of people receives information, the inclination is to discuss it. The more times one option is said aloud, the harder it is for individuals to recall other options, explained Krishnan, associate professor of marketing at Indiana University.
I have noticed my own personal brain-damage when trying to think in a meeting, now I have confirmation!
In my blog last week I discussed the need for different futures exercises that should be conducted with the animation industry and art.
Technology scan for Animation Futures:
One major technology breakthrough that could figure highly into the futures of animation is the highly anticipated spread of 3D graphical interfaces on both computers and televisions. 3D technology is currently expensive and available, but many industry representatives have begun announcing affordable in home and mobile display interfaces. Analysts hope that these technologies will be wide spread by 2010, as initial models have been well received, and plans for mass production are already underway.
There are different technologies at play in these systems. Some necessitate special camera used in filming, others holographic information, some rely on the display technology to essentially turn any flat image into a 3D experience. Though no standard form has yet to emerge, this tecchnology is here and has the potential to finally have more than novel applications. Here are some of this technology in its various manifestation:
1) Volumetric Displays- These types of display create a 3D form in space.
SWEPT SURFACE technologies rely on a persistence of view to provide the illusion of depth in an image displayed on a 2D display. Images are split into multiple layers, and then rotated to create the necessary volume of light effect. STATIC VOLUME technologies rely on a number of voxels to define and reference an area of space. When the voxels are activated they define the shape of the projected object. Other techniques that are being tested include the use of pulsed infrared lasers,speciallized fiber optic illumination, and duo-infrared within a medium of impure galss.
products and keywords: XYZ Imaging, Holovisio, I Crystal, Hypnocube, LightSpcae Technologies Inc.
2) Stereoscopic Projection- This technique depicts 2D images in a 3D space by creating numerous projections of the image. Traditional forms include 2 image crossvieing (stereoscope), different forms of glasses.
HEAD WORN DISPLAYS- rejeccted due to their cumbersome size and weight, are experiencing a slight revival due to further minaturization of technologies and increased interest. DISPLAYS WITH FILTER ARRAYS- Possibly the technique that will make the mass breakthrough of 3D technology a reality, this technology relies on covering an LCD with prism arrays that transmit multiple angles of pixels.
Not only does this technology provide an enhanced viewing experience, but companies have already developed interactivity technologies. Though some of these technologies are currently limited to use in basic games, we should recognize the potential of these interfaces if it were to be combined with motion tracking technologies, or remote-operator applications.
But what does this mean for animation.
There doesn't yet seem to be any downward pointing trends as far as animations current uses in 2D technology. Video games, feature films, and various advertising and presentation applications have already increased demand for 3D animators and designers. Why shouldn't 3D display technologies increase that demand for content creators and creation?
I think we should begin to imagine a world in which 3D environments are used for training and education, virtual tours, immersive game play, and augmented reality devices. These places will need inhabitants outside of the people who are entering them. They will need props, sets, and most importantly characters. True, you can probably interact with other humans, but not everyone will want to and why not have a greater selection? Now, in some instances, it may be preferable to have a "normal" looking person giving instructions or making suggestions. However, imagined characters and alien species will still have an audience...perhaps a bigger audience than ever, as these avatars and instructors become personalized and built to the order of the user. Imagine walking down the streets of virtual New York from anywhere in the world. Now imagine that as a New York city that has been populated by weebles, fraggles, and quarker-zots. What maybe even better is populating any city, building or room with your choice of these or any other species. If you need a stern teacher or the quintessential "drill instructor" before you ever learn anything, please feel free to use these icons to lead you through a 3D environment. However, it is much more enticing for many to have a kind, intelligible, and patient instructor. I learned from Sesame St. so brightly colored fluffy things teaching children and even adults is not an alien concept. (Oddly, here in Hawai'i it is almost the norm).
I will preface this section by stating that i have not thoroughly researched this particular area.
OPEN SOURCE animation and programming of animation software.
Google SketchUp allows the world to download free, user friendly design software. This is capable of some animation as well. This will slowly eliminate the once esoteric animation and design group, and will allow for increased diversity of content. Blender is currently the most popular 3D design software. It too allows for free download, and also provides open source code for programmers to develop their own plug-ins, rendering schemes, and effects engines. Sandy for Flash is aimed at the users of Macromedia's Flash software. Sandy is software that genertes 3D images in the flash animation program...efficeintly. Mel Scripting and Plug-In creation. Increasingly, methods and techniques for using design software are being recorded scripted and even turned into plug-ins. These are generally developed by users of the software, but are provided for free to the design community once they are developed. Maya 8.5 and other rendering and effects programs are becoming expanded and improved by the users.
Open Source software and plugins will give availability and expansion to the medium of 3D graphics. Both of these areas will be further researched as I prepare to discuss the next segment on Cultural diversity of content. It should also be noted, that REAL wealths of information concerning these technologies and other not mentioned here can be explored in forums such as Digg, CGtalk, 3dCGI, and Highend3D. This blog entry is not meant to be a comprehensive view of technologies that will impac the animation industry. Swarms are much better at bring things to light...ENJOY!
MOTION CAPTURE and ARTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE
While this technology is not new, higher powered rendering farms and processing banks will allow for deeper evaluations of motion, and will increase the number of applications of this technology. Because these motions are translated into mathematical data not only can this data then be used in more than one scene, with various masks for the animated figure, but also it can be used to inform aninmating engines. I do not think we should put out of the realm of possibility the development of software and hardware that is capable of creating its own animation storyline and all of the graphics to acccompany it. While this postulation may sound absurd, it seems within the realm of converging technologies that an softAI program be developed that is capable of this kind of creativity. Can we imagine the question "what does your consciousness feel like" posed to an AI machine? Can we also imagine that the response, instead of being a series of conceptual words in multiple languages, takes the form of images drafted and put into motion. Perhaps it could have cogent storyline or theme, but then again, how many of our conscious minds have one? Regardless of whether or not this comes to be true, Motion Capture technologies are still relatively new and show much potential for growth beyond film and gaming. Banks of motion capture data may someday be leased or motions sold for any number of applications. Perhaps film students of the future will do less time hiring real actors, and more time sorting through files of actors moving through different poses. Some gestures are so trademark of a certain actor, that it would be unmistakable if applied to an animated figurine. Athletes will be able to diagnose their stride, stroke of shot, readjust, and practice to get mechanical proficiency...what will be even more intriguing is when suits (perhaps made of some informed molecular material) begin recieving data, and molding the athletes body mid-action. Practice and Execution will be evenmore incredible...but again i digress.
In essence, I think that the influence and use of MOCAP technoloy will continue to figure into some of the directions that animation will move. Increased intelligence of software that orchestrates processors and directs computer aided design could also provide for some novel convergence experiments and media creation.
This is not a comprehesive list of technolgies impacting animation. In fact, it is most likely very uninformed, since these studies have not been long or even very in depth. However, I look forward to learning more as I research animation, and am very open to guidance from any reader who can offer suggestions or directions... Thanks again for reading.
A roundup of the year's most interesting ideas in The New York Times Magazine at the end of 02006 included an entry on "hyperopia: an excess of farsightedness".
The piece referenced the research of two scholars at Columbia University, whose findings appeared in the Journal of Consumer Research, in an article entitled "Repenting Hyperopia" (available as a pdf here).
Whether the rationale of forgoing pleasure today (for what reasons, the study doesn't discuss) retrospectively contributes to net happiness is a very interesting question. According to these authors, it doesn't. In their analysis, which entailed quizzing subjects about a range of decisions they'd made, the guilt that can result from "myopia" (making decisions for indulgence today) tends to fade over time, whereas the regret associated with missing out due to "hyperopia" (here identified with ascetic choices, described as "virtuous") tended to endure. This, say the authors, contradicts the "classic literature on self-control" which "assumes that consumers regret yielding to hedonic temptations".
An important reason why this could be the case, it seems to me, is because the study contains nothing linking decisions made to consequences experienced. It mainly illuminates the pattern that guilt feelings don't appear to last as long as than the regrets of missed opportunity, which relates to the ways those different types of emotions play out (the former is "hot" and dissipates quickly, the latter "cool" and slow to leave). By contrast, it would be interesting to see a similar study of, say, the retrospective feelings of cakelovers whose repeated choices to eat cake either did (in one group) or did not (in another) lead to obesity and/or heart disease. Similarly, smokers whose daily habit culminated in chronic emphysema might express a bit more indulgence remorse than the one-off decisions made by the groups surveyed in the studies in question. If the incidence rates illuminating the risk associated with "myopic" behaviours (smoking/emphysema; poor diet/obesity) were evaluated against the rate and degree of regret experienced, we might expect to come away with a better sense of how serious a problem "hyperopia" really is.
Also, to bring out explicitly an important point that's implied in my remarks above, one slice of chocolate cake, or one bowl of fruit salad, is hardly grounds for getting worked up. The feelings over time that we experience about single decisions to eat some cake, attend a party, or spend money on winter break (for such is the subject matter of this research) are relatively trivial compared to repeat instances or patterns of behaviour. By and large, we might hypothesise, it's not a one-time indulgence that you'll regret, but the lifestyle. The temporal measure is only superficially about the passage of time per se, what's actually at issue is the accumulated consequences of lots of little decisions.
Turning to the macro scale now; we can see the point more clearly. Global warming is not the result of one car trip. The devastation of rainforest is not caused by eating one hamburger. But multiply these things out by decades, and millions of people, and we all have ample reason to regret those little indulgences. Let's turn it around now. Is it hyperopic not to drive to work on one day because you're concerned about global warming? How about not eating that one hamburger because of the forest?
Agonising over a these minor decisions on a one-off basis might be a symptom of hyperopia. On the other hand, deciding to ride a bicycle to work instead of drive an SUV, or deciding to become vegetarian to avoid the resource intensiveness of remaining omnivorous -- though both evince highly farsighted modes of thought, I would argue they aren't "hyperopic" in a pejorative sense.
In any case, people seem to have some psychological difficulty accepting the cumulative responsibility for incremental negative effects of their decisions; so, research that evaluated the level of their regret as it mapped onto scaled-up consequences (for their health, or that of the planet) could be very interesting. A key issue seems to be whether decision-making effort is expended according to the magnitude of the stakes in question. And that could lead to better measures of myopia and hyperopia -- the extent to which people devote too little, or too much, deliberative effort to the actual risks associated with their behaviour.
One final point, then: in light of the above it's unfortunate that in this research the term hyperopia (literally, "farsightedness") is used here to denote excessive delayed gratification, because it conflates foresightful decision-making (a genus of decision that is made with a view to its potential long-term, including cumulative, consequences) with the problem of overly zealous ascetiscism (a species of largely symbolic rationale with ideological-religious undertones). Their conclusion that "myopia may be farsighted after all" seems particularly susceptible to abuse by anyone who might like to argue that we're better off not thinking ahead, an analogous claim to the one that the market will take care of everything, so there's no need to worry about policy to prevent long-term problems emerging from our collective economic activity. I'm not disputing the research findings as such, but simply pointing out the way they're framed seems consistent with dismissing the value of thinking ahead. That conclusion again: "myopia may be farsighted after all". But surely by definition, myopia is as bad as -- albeit different from -- hyperopia?
So, this research shows that sometimes we're better off, subjectively speaking, indulging ourselves today. I have no problem with that; it certainly comports with my own experience in certain areas (e.g. spending money while travelling). To be able to take that very finding into account, enhances our capacity for looking ahead (as an avenue to choosing wisely), which is in my view an undervalued good in the world of decision-making, and ought to be thoughtfully encouraged and developed. Another term, for the paralysis that can result from thinking too far out -- taking too much long-range responsibility -- is "karma vertigo" (coined by Jaron Lanier); and that's certainly a syndrome we'd do well to avoid in thinking ahead. But I fear that farsightedness is currently in too fragile a state to be given a bad name by dint of semantic carelessness on the part of these researchers. Ironically, this swipe at hyperopia could really exacerbate (what I regard as) already myopic tendencies in society.
Perhaps the problem is simply that their analysis of future orientation in decision-making is missing a category, which is implied but not discussed; the sweet spot between the extremes of excessive farsightedness and shortsightedness: foresight.
Today, the HRCFS was involved with a futures process at the Excellence in Education Conference at Honolulu Community College. Professor Dator opened with a presentation and then the participants were divieded into four different groups, one for each future scenario. We used the scenarios produced for the Hawai'i Sustainability 2050 conference. Jake Dunagan, Stuart Candy and Myself (Cyrus Camp) facilitated the group discussions.
Here is the whole group at the opening of the process.
Here is a picture of a group discussing the Silver Future. Each group was given two scenarios to discuss. This was my first time facilitating in a "live" situation. I was a little nervous, but I was able to relax and enjoy listening to the discussion as the groups did not need much facilitating. Our game plan from the beginning was to try have the groups be "self-facilitating", which seemed to work. Along with each scenario a set of standard questions were listed which gave a direction for the discussion.
The last step in the process involved having a representatrive from each group report back to the larger group about their scenario (the first future they discussed).
All in all, I felt it went well. Though there is certainly room to improve. It seemed all the participants enjoyed themselves and were amused by the diversity of the possible futures. it was interesting to see the different perspectives brought to each future. Some were more accepting and could see the futures as possible or even probable. While others (such as my group) generally thought both futures they were given were highly improbable.
In terms of improving the process, I think the handouts could have been more detailed, which would have aided the self-facilitating groups. Another issue is that a few times, participants would miss a key item within the scenario write-up, only to realize later in the discussion that the future they were envisioning was different than what the rest of the group was discussing. A possible remedy would be to include list of key features, or possibly more information for how people in that future behave to help explain some of the aspects.
