Governing at the End...

At a recent roundtable discussion held by the UH Manoa Department of Political Science, Jim Dator, Ira Rohter, and Lynette Cruz offered their perspectives on the challenges Hawaii faces in a world of decreasing access to energy (especially oil), environmental collapse, financial crisis, and cultural upheaval. Below is an excerpt from Jim's talk. The complete paper can be found here.

So more and more careful observers are finally becoming concerned about a looming gap when oil is unbearably expensive and scarce, and before new equivalent energy sources can pick up the slack.

That is what the immediate future is now being called optimistically: "The Gap", with the implication that there will be something stable and sustainable on the other side of the gap, if we can just weather it through. In 1969 Aurelio Peccei, who soon after founded the Club of Rome, wrote a book titled The Chasm Ahead. It very well described events that are now unfolding, right on cue, as Peccei said they would if we did not take action to avoid the chasm, which, in spite of his best efforts and my expectations, we did not do.

I think a "chasm" may be a better image than a mere "gap"--which just sounds to many of us like a great place to shop for funky clothes.

But the end of cheap and abundant oil is only one of three challenges facing Hawaii in our view.

A second are all of the environmental challenges that Peccei, Ira, and many others, including myself, have been warning us about for 40 years, most dramatically global climate change, sea-level rise, water scarcity, soil erosion and contamination, food (especially grain) shortages, air, soil and water pollution, overfishing and ocean pollution, new and renewed global pandemics, and massive global movements of environmental refugees.

Again, Ira and I did not differ about the reality and severity of these challenges. We differed in two ways, first of all, in what to do about them, and secondly, whether action would be taken in time or not.

As I said, I was optimistic, since Hawaii was so vulnerable, that sensible people would of course consider our concern, assess the matter, decide what to do about it, and begin to move quickly towards a preferred future. There was every indication in the early 1970s that we were going to do just that. But a funny thing happened on the way to the future, and, after a great start, Hawaii, and the rest of the US, simply put their butts in the air, their heads in the sand, and boogied on like there was no tomorrow.

Sustainability & Saunders

To any Futures Alum, and all interested parties,

HRCFS will have an information booth set up at the
Sustainabiity Saudners / Earth Day Kickoff Event
this coming Friday April 20th.

We will be operating on the 7th Floor from 3pm to 9pm. Afterwards there will be live music and continued discussions.
While we realize that Sustainabiity is just one of the Alternative Futures Scenarios
we work through, this event may be important to the direction of the Univeristy and
the State. It has been getting very good publicity and is being promoted by the mayor's office and the Chancellor.

Hope to see you all out there!

FUTURES SALON: Thursday

Hello everyone,

Just a reminder that this thursday night at 7:00pm
HRCFS will be hosting the April edition of our Futures Salon Series.

Venue:

Ward's Rafters
3810 MAUNALOA St.
Honolulu, HI 96816


Our focus this month will be on Architectural Design with two main
focuses
Extraterrestrial Design,
and Mobile Buildings...

Should be very exciting with presentations
by
Liza Lockhard
and
Mitra Kananni
two professional architects
who focus in the above areas.

As usual Food will be provided,
and we look forward to seeing you all out there



contact phone number (808)956-2888

Great news from Houston

Our friends at the University of Houston have cleared a major administrative hurdle in their transition from Clear Lake to the main campus. It is a great sign for futures in U.S. higher education. We wish Peter and the crew a hearty congratulations and the best of luck.


The word from Peter Bishop:

Colleagues,



At Noon today, the Graduate Professional and Services Council (GPSC), the faculty group that approves new programs at the University of Houston, recommended that the program in Futures Studies be forwarded to the administration for approval. As far as we can tell, the GPSC was the biggest hurdle in the approval process. Now that we have secured the faculty’s approval, the two last steps are approval by the administration (which seems certain) and approval the State Coordinating Board (which seems likely given the campus’ approval). We might even be admitting students to the new program in Fall 2007, though we are not sure of how long the last two steps may take.


Many thanks go to Dr. Shirley Ezell, faculty member in our department and former Dean of the College of Technology, who invited me to join the faculty and basically managed the approval process, and to Dr. Carole Goodson, Chair of our Department, who spent endless hours writing and re-writing (and re-writing!) the proposal to meet the needs of the committee.



The program has changed somewhat from the Clear Lake version to meet the requirements of the faculty committee. We will publish the complete program when we get final approval to offer the degree.



In the meantime, please join us in celebration. We are still alive!...

April Future Salon: Moving Buildings? on Mars?

The Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies is proud to announce
the next edition of our Futures Salon Series:
Futures in Architecture.

When:
April 19th, prompt start time of 8pm
Where:
Ward's Rafters
3810 Maunaloa St.
Honolulu, HI 96816

Who:

This presentation will feature two professional Architects
whose interests have led them to blend futures thinking in
their work.


Liza Lockard will discuss architectural considerations and implications
for the designing of extraterrestrial human habitats
and,
Mitra Kanaani will be giving a brief overview of Performative Spaces,
and the architectural philosophies that border science, design, and cognitive perception in designing new urban structures.


We hope that you will find the presented material as exciting and thought provoking as we do.

See you there,


Aaron Rosa

Futures Scenarios : The Animation Industry

Snapshot Scenarios for Futures of Animation


One approach to the “Futures” process includes the forming of alternative scenarios or existing futures. Sometimes these Imagined worlds are developed around a matrix that explores a range of values of key variables that are likely to have a very distinct outcome on the world that develops. Another Approach to Scenario building uses 4 general frameworks of the envisioned future: Collapse, Continued Growth, Transformation, and Disciplinary.

It is important to YOU the reader of these scenarios to make two very important realizations. Firstly, that these scenarios are not meant to be predictions of the future, nor even the author’s most preferred future. They are simply meant to be mental tools that can assist in thought experiments and envisioning practices. It is sometimes helpful to read or experience another version of a reality in order to gain new perspectives, understandings, and approaches. Scenarios provide different views of trends emerging, diverging, and submerging – combining to form interesting pictures of what life MAY be like.

Of course, the entire purpose of the “Futures” exercise is to help any group or organization develop an idea of its most preferred vision of the future. Once this has been established, then the work of planning and roadmapping towards this vision can take place. The second realization to make rests on this premise of futuring: the future is in your hands to shape and to create.

I offer the following scenarios that anyone with an interest in directing the futures of the animation industry may read them and find them useful for engaging their faculties in dreaming and designing their preferred future reality. (please click on each picture to access the scenario)