POLITICS OF THE FUTURE
PolSc 672 Fall 2004 Version 5/27/04
Jim Dator
Department of Political Science
University of Hawaii
http://www.futures.hawaii.edu
This is a graduate-level introduction to the study of the future from a political
science perspective. It is also the basic core course in the Department's graduate
degree focus in Alternative Futures. It emphasizes:
1. What political futures studies is--and what it is not
2. Dominant images of the future at the present
3. Theories of societal stability and change
4. Methods of forecasting social change and stability
5. Emerging issues analysis
6. Methods of designing preferred social systems
8/25. What political futures studies is, and is not. Discussion
READINGS:
Wendell Bell, "A community of futurists"
Eleonora Masini, "A vision of futures studies"
Jim Dator, "The future lies behind!"
Jim Dator, "Dator's 'Laws of the Future'"
Jim Dator, "To be a good futurist…"
Ziauddin Sardar, et al, "Colonizing the future"
"What futurists think" Futures Aug/Sept 1996 (List of names)
"About the authors" (List of names from Advancing Futures)
9/1. Some uses of futures studies. Discussion
READINGS:
Keon Chi, "Foresight activities in state government"
Hariolf Grupp & Hal Linstone, "National technology foresight"
Jim Dator, "Future generations: They are our conscience"
Jim Dator, "When the courts of justice are overgrown with grass"
Joseph Coates, "The future as a factor in business planning"
Andy Hines & Louise Trudeau, "Futurists on the 'Inside'"
Edward Major, et al., "Foresight as a core competence"
Kjell Dahle, "Participative futures studies"
Chris Jones "The 'Manoa school' of futures studies"
Yoshihisa Amae, "Taiwan Adrift?"
Yongseok Seo, "From the 38th Parallel to a Border:
ASSIGNMENT: Write an essay (7-10 pages) reviewing & evaluating the
readings so far. Bring in next class. Post later.
9/8. Overview of dominant images of the future. Discussion
READINGS:
Peter Schwartz, "The long boom"
Meadows, et al, "Beyond the limits" (excerpt)
Ira Rohter, "Envisioning a Green Hawaii"
Betty Reardon, "Women's visions of peace"
Jim Dator, "Assuming 'Responsibility for your rose'"
Jim Dator, "American st. cts., 5 tsunamis, & 4 alternative futures"
Sohail Inayatullah, "Images of Pakistan's future"
Jim Dator, "Some in power, some in pain"
Jim Dator, "Futures of identity, racism, and diversity"
Jim Dator (chart of four futures and four functions)
ASSIGNMENT: Bring & discuss your critique of the concept, "images of
the future," and of the specific futures presented.
9/15. Critique of the images of the future. Oral & written
reports
(Also: Indicate intended focus of your final paper.)
9/22. Theories of societal stability & change (1) Discussion
READING:
Jirl Musil, "Theories of social change"
Jim Dator, "Loose connections"
9/29. Theories of societal stability & change (2). Discussion
READINGS:
Jan Huston, "Evolutionary systems theory"
ASSIGNMENT: Read Molitor and bring in empirical evidence for the first
emergence and subsequent growth of a present real problem or
opportunity.
10/6. Emerging issues analysis (past). Oral & written reports
READINGS:
Graham Molitor, "How to anticipate public-policy changes"
Rick Slaughter, "Environmental scanning"
ASSIGNMENT: Bring in on 10/27 evidence for an emerging issue
Bring in next class a statement of progress on you final paper.
10/13. Methods of social forecasting (1). Discussion
(Turn in statement of progress on your final paper)
READINGS:
Jim Dator, "Notes on futures methods"
Eleonora Masini, "Methodological lines"
Joe Coates, "Culture and the selection of techniques"
Vary Coates, "Technological forecasting"
Vary Coates, et al., "Future of technological forecasting"
10/20. Methods of social forecasting (2). Discussion
Thomas Chermack, et al, "A review of scenario planning literature"
Jim Dator, "Hints on writing scenarios of preferred futures"
Hal Linstone, "Corporate planning, forecasting and the long wave"
Jim Dator, "From tsunamis to long waves"
Jim Dator, "Age-cohort analysis"
Sohail Inayatullah, "Causal layered analysis"
10/27. Emerging issues analysis. Oral & written reports
11/3. Futures envisioning workshops, method of social design.
(1)
Past, Present, and Alternative Futures
READINGS:
Jim Dator, "Society as an invention, and you as an inventor"
Wendy Schultz, "Reinventing courts for the 21st Century"
Jim Dator, "From futures workshops to envisioning alt. futures"
Jim Dator, "Futures visioning workshop material"
de Bono, "Six thinking hats"
"Dimensions of the Hawaii Judiciary"
11/10. Futures envisioning workshops, method of social design (2)
Preferred Futures
Jim Dator, "Futures in the Virginia Judiciary: A continuing success story"
11/17, 11/24, 12/1, 12/8
Rough drafts of students' final papers:
Bring in, distribute to class, and discuss outline and bibliography of your
final paper.
NOTE ON THE FINAL PAPER:
After consultation with me, and no later than September 15 tell me, in writing, which one of the following three things you will do as your final paper:
1. Choose two, contrasting, futurists from the lists distributed, and compare the two in terms of the major categories used in this class--image of the future, theory of social change, methods of forecasting and/or designing the future. Read what the two have written and that has been written about them. Contact them personally if they are alive, and interview them. Think about yourself as a futurist in comparison with these two, and compare yourself in terms of the same four categories.
Your final paper will thus be about these three futurists in terms of the categories used in this class.
2. Choose any two contrasting methods from the list of methods in futures studies surveyed in this class, and read what you can find about them, both from a theoretical/descriptive perspective, as well as how they have been applied in actual futures research.
Prepare your final paper as a description, comparison, and critique of these two contrasting methods. Suggest ways to improve these methods, and/or devise a futures methods which you think is superior to these two.3. Choose any two contrasting theories of social change which are mentioned in class, or which you otherwise encounter. Discuss them in terms of their origin, intellectual history, and application as a way of understanding, and/or anticipating, social change. Develop a statement of your own theory of social change from, or in contrast, to these two.
Your final paper will thus be a description, comparison, and critique of these two contrasting theories, and of your own theory of social change.
Do not delay in starting on this project. It will take time!
Note that by October 13 you are to turn in an outline of your final paper, and a few pages indicating your progress in doing research for it.
You will also have an opportunity to make an oral presentation of your paper some time during the last weeks of class. Depending on when you report (early on, or near the end of the term) this presentation may be more or less complete and polished. But the purpose of the presentation is two-fold: 1) to give you an opportunity to hear your fellow classmates, and myself, react to your paper (and therefore, no matter how complete and finished you feel your paper is, you MUST be willing and able to change it, if necessary, on the basis of the feedback following your oral presentation), and 2) to give your fellow classmates a chance to learn about futurists, methods or theories they have not otherwise heard discussed in class, or not heard discussed in such detail. Thus, your presentation is a vital, substantive part of this class. IT IS IMPORTANT YOU BEGIN PREPARING FOR IT EARLY IN THE SEMESTER. Also, at the time of your oral presentation, please distribute an outline and bibliography for the benefit of your classmates.
More information about the paper, and your oral presentation, will be given later in the semester.
THE FINAL PAPER ITSELF IS DUE ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 15, BEFORE 4:15 pm. Any papers turned in later may not be graded in time to be recorded this semester, resulting in your getting an "I" grade, which will be removed whenever I have time to read the paper subsequently. If you think you might be late with this paper for any reason, please check with me BEFORE the paper is due about policies and procedures for making up Incompletes.
GRADING CRITERIA:
Final paper 35%
Oral report of draft of final paper 15%
Sept 17 written proposal for final paper 05%
Oct 15 written rough outline of final paper 05%
Participation in listserv 10%
4 written assignments (at 5% each) 20%
Attendance and participation in class 10%
100%
OFFICE HOURS:
Saunders 604. Monday-Thursday 1-3 pm, or by appointment
Phone: 1-808-956-6601 Email: dator@hawaii.edu
NOTES:
1. A private, email listserv has been arranged for this class. Please use this listserv to comment on the ideas discussed (or not discussed) in the class. Please try to read and post comments on the listserv daily if possible. If it is physically impossible for you to access it daily, then please contribute substantially to the online discussion at least once a week.
2. As part of my duties as Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, I may have to miss one or two class periods. These will either be rescheduled for some other consensually-acceptable time, or someone will take the class for me. However, I will take my PowerBook with me, and access my email almost daily, so we can still be in frequent contact even when I am off-island . However, if my missing classes causes you a problem, please don't enroll in this class.
3. Because so much of the material in this course is presented by you and other students, during class time, your attendance is expected on a regular basis . You often can't "make up" missed material. However if you and everyone use email as assigned, you should be able to participate in some class activities even when you cannot be physically present. Still, if you know that you will have to miss several classes, you probably should not take this class. If you have any questions about this, please contact me before you miss any classes.