POLITICS OF THE FUTURE

Jim Dator PolSc 672 Fall 2001

Department of Political Science Version 7/24/01 University of Hawaii

This is a graduate-level introduction to the study of the future from a political science perspective. It is also the basic core course in the Department's graduate degree focus in Alternative Futures. It emphasizes:

1. What political futures studies is--and what it is not

2. Dominant images of the future at the present

3. Theories of societal stability and change

4. Methods of forecasting social change and stability

5. Emerging issues analysis

6. Methods of designing preferred social systems

8/29. What political futures studies is, and is not. Discussion

READINGS:
Jim Dator, "The future lies behind!"

Wendell Bell, "What do we mean by futures studies?"

Jim Dator, "Dator's 'Laws of the Future'"

Ziauddin Sardar, et al, "Colonizing the future"

Wayne Boucher, "The futures examination"

"What futurists think" Futures Aug/Sept 1996

"About the authors"

http://www.futures.hawaii.edu

9/5. Some uses of futures studies. Discussion

READINGS:
Keon Chi, "Foresight activities in state government"

Hariolf Grupp & Hal Linstone, "National technology foresight"

Jim Dator, "Future generations: They are our conscience"

Jim Dator, "When the courts of justice are overgrown with grass"

Jim Dator, "Futures in Va. Judiciary: Continuing success story"

Clem Bezold, "Using futures in business"

Tom Mandel "Corporate futures research"

Andy Hines & Louise Trudeau, "Futurists on the 'Inside'"

Kjell Dahle, "Participative futures studies"

Chris Jones "The 'Manoa school' of futures studies"

ASSIGNMENT: Write an essay (7-10 pages) reviewing & evaluating the

readings so far. Bring in next class. Post later.

9/12. Overview of dominant images of the future. Discussion

READINGS:
Peter Schwartz, "The long boom"

Meadows, et al, "Beyond the limits" (excerpt)

Ira Rohter, "Envisioning a Green Hawaii"

Betty Reardon, "Women's visions of peace"

Sohail Inayatullah, "Images of Pakistan's future"

Jim Dator, "Responsible for your rose"

Jim Dator, "Futures of universities"

Jim Dator, "American st. cts., 5 tsunamis, & 4 alternative futures"

Jim Dator (chart of four futures and four functions)

ASSIGNMENT: Bring & discuss your critique of the concept, "images of

  • the future," and of the specific futures presented.

     

    •

    9/19. Critique of the images of the future. Oral & written reports

    (Also: Indicate intended focus of your final paper.)

    9/26. Theories of societal stability & change (1) Discussion

    READING:
    Jirl Musil, "Theories of social change"

    Jim Dator, "Loose connections"

    (Review "Social change theories" in ABS)

    10/3. Theories of societal stability & change (2). Discussion

    READINGS:
    Jan Huston, "Evolutionary systems theory"

    Kevin Kelly, "Nine laws of God"

    ASSIGNMENT: Read Molitor and bring in empirical evidence for the first emergence and subsequent growth of a present real problem or opportunity.

     

    10/10. Emerging issues analysis (past). Oral & written reports

    READINGS:
    Graham Molitor, "How to anticipate public-policy changes"

    Rick Slaughter, "Environmental scanning"

    ASSIGNMENT: Bring in on 10/31 evidence for an emerging issue

    Bring in next class a statement of progress on you final paper.

     

    10/17. Methods of social forecasting (1). Discussion

    (Turn in statement of progress on your final paper)

    READINGS:

    Jim Dator, "Notes on futures methods"

    Eleonora Masini, "Methodological lines"

    Joe Coates, "Culture and the selection of techniques"

    Vary Coates, "Technological forecasting"

    Vary Coates, et al., "Future of technological forecasting"

    10/24. Methods of social forecasting (2). Discussion

    Gausmeier et al, "Scenario management"

    Jim Dator, "From tsunamis to long waves"

    Berry & Kim" Leadership generations"

    de Bono, "Six thinking hats"

    10/31. Emerging issues analysis. Oral & written reports

    11/7. Futures envisioning workshops, method of social design. (1)

    Past, Present, and Alternative Futures

    READINGS:

    Wendy Schultz, "Reinventing courts for the 21st Century"

    Jim Dator, "From futures workshops to envisioning alt. futures"

    Jim Dator, "Futures visioning workshop material"

  • "Dimensions of the Hawaii Judiciary"
    •

     

    11/14. Futures envisioning workshops, method of social design (2)

    Preferred Futures

     

    11/21, 11/28, 12/5, 12/12

    Rough drafts of students' final papers:

    Bring in, distribute to class, and discuss outline and bibliography of your final paper.

     

    NOTE ON THE FINAL PAPER: After consultation with me, and no later than September 19 tell me, in writing, which one of the following three things you will do as your final paper:

    1. Choose two, contrasting, futurists from the ABS volume or the list distributed, and compare the two in terms of the major categories used in this class--image of the future, theory of social change, methods of forecasting and/or designing the future. Read what the two have written and that has been written about them. Contact them personally if they are alive, and interview them. Think about yourself as a futurist in comparison with these two, and compare yourself in terms of the same four categories.

    Your final paper will thus be about these three futurists in terms of the categories used in this class.

    2. Choose any two contrasting methods from the list of methods in futures studies surveyed in this class, and read what you can find about them, both from a theoretical/descriptive perspective, as well as how they have been applied in actual futures research.

    Prepare your final paper as a description, comparison, and critique of these two contrasting methods. Suggest ways to improve these methods, and/or devise a futures methods which you think is superior to these two.

    3. Choose any two contrasting theories of social change which are mentioned in class, or which you otherwise encounter. Discuss them in terms of their origin, intellectual history, and application as a way of understanding, and/or anticipating, social change. Develop a statement of your own theory of social change from, or in contrast, to these two.

    Your final paper will thus be a description, comparison, and critique of these two contrasting theories, and of your own theory of social change.

     

    Do not delay in starting on this project. It will take time!

     

    Note that by October 17 you are to turn in an outline of your final paper, and a few pages indicating your progress in doing research for it.

     

    THE FINAL PAPER ITSELF IS DUE ON FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, BEFORE 4:15 pm. Any papers turned in later may not be graded in time to be recorded this semester, resulting in your getting an "I" grade, which will be removed whenever I have time to read the paper subsequently. If you think you might be late with this paper for any reason, please check with me BEFORE the paper is due about policies and procedures for making up Incompletes.

     

    GRADING CRITERIA:

    Final paper ---------------------------------35%

    Oral report of draft of final paper ------------15%

    Sept 19 written proposal for final paper ------05%

    Oct 17 written rough outline of final paper ---05%

    Participation in listserv ---------------------10%

    4 written assignments (at 5% each) -----------20%

    Attendance and participation in class --------10%

    TOTAL ------------------------------------100%

  •  
    •

     

    OFFICE HOURS:

    Social Sciences 604. Monday-Thursday 1-3 pm, or by appointment

    Phone: 1-808-956-6601 Email: dator@hawaii.edu

    URL: http://www.future.hawaii.edu

     

     

    NOTES:

    1. A private, email listserv has been arranged for this class. Please use this listserv to comment on the ideas discussed (or not discussed) in the class. Please try to read and post comments on the listserv daily if possible. If it is physically impossible for you to access it daily, then please contribute substantially to the online discussion at least once a week.

    2. As part of my duties as Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, I may have to miss one or two class periods. These will either be rescheduled for some other consensually-acceptable time, or someone will take the class for me. However, I will take my PowerBook with me, and access my email almost daily, so we can still be in frequent contact even when I am off-island . However, if my missing classes causes you a problem, please don't enroll in this class.

    3. Because so much of the material in this course is presented by you and other students, during class time, your attendance is expected on a regular basis . You often can't "make up" missed material. However if you and everyone use email as assigned, you should be able to participate in some class activities even when you cannot be physically present. Still, if you know that you will have to miss several classes, you probably should not take this class. If you have any questions about this, please contact me before you miss any classes.